Who's On The Bubble?

2011 NCAA Bubble Teams

While Dan McQuade does not hold a degree from the University of Bracketology, he occasionally does practice some amateur bracketology while it's still legal. (Joe Lunardi is lobbying for legislation right this instant.)

So while he still can, McQuade takes a look at the profiles of some prominent major conference bubble teams: How they look so far, what they need to do to get in and -- since the tournament committee is mysterious -- mitigating factors that may help or hurt when the 68-team field is announced on March 13.

(All images in this slideshow are from the Associated Press.)

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Who's On The Bub... While Dan McQuade does not hold a degree from the University of Bracketology, he occasionally does practice some amateur bracketology while it's still legal. (Joe Lunardi is lobbying for legislation right this instant.)
So while he still can, McQuade takes a look at the profiles of some prominent major conference bubble teams: How they look so far, what they need to do to get in and -- since the tournament committee is mysterious -- mitigating factors that may help or hurt when the 68-team field is announced on March 13.
(All images in this slideshow are from the Associated Press.)
Boston College (... The Eagles' big rally on Saturday fell just short at North Carolina, 48-46, and they missed out on a chance for a quality win. Instead, BC will probably have to go at least 3-1 in the regular season for a shot at the tournament; the Eagles are 5-7 in their last 12.
Best win: Texas A&M (RPI: 26)
Worst loss: Yale (RPI: 166)
Mitigating factor: Actually a university. Actually in Chestnut Hill, Mass. The committee probably doesn't like liars.
Verdict: Out, unless they make a run in the ACC Tournament.
Florida State (1... The Seminoles are 8-4 in their last 12 games and have a big win over Boston College to separate them from their ACC bubble brethren. Unfortunately, they'll be without star Chris Singleton (pictured) for the rest of the year. FSU is 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, but if the Seminoles struggle without Singleton, they could miss the Big Dance.
Best win: Duke (RPI: 6)
Worst loss: at Auburn (RPI: 272)
Mitigating factor: Singleton, of course. While unlikely, the committee could take a stand against Florida's move to an early presidential primary and leave FSU out. Okay, maybe that's unlikely.
Verdict: In. Duke continues to win, making that big Seminoles triumph look even better.
St. John's (17-9... The Johnnies are actually probably off the bubble now. Hey, they were probably in before beating Pittsburgh on Saturday considering they're 7-7 against the RPI Top 50 and have huge wins over Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke and now Pitt. They're 6-1 in their last seven games and will at least get to 19 wins with home games against DePaul and South Florida.
Best win: Duke (RPI: 6)
Worst loss: at Fordham (RPI: 244)
Mitigating factor: While the committee is happy St. John's nickname is no longer offensive, "Red Storm" remains just as stupid a nickname 17 years after it was adopted.
Verdict: In. If they do well in the Big East Tournament that seed could get better and better, too.
West Virginia (1... West Virginia is 5-5 in its last 10 games but -- like most Big East teams -- has a lot of Top 50 RPI wins. Its victory over Notre Dame on Saturday was key as the Mountaineers are now 6-6 against the Top 50 and 4-5 against the Top 25. They get a couple more shots for good wins too, with a trip to Pittsburgh and a home date with Connecticut coming up.
Best win: at Georgetown (RPI: 5)
Worst loss: (N) Marshall (RPI: 61)
Mitigating factor: Oh, c'mon. Every year West Virginia has some big goober who happens to be great at basketball. The committee would be silly not to include them.
Verdict: In. Their seed had taken a dip before the ND win, but West Virginia is still safe.
Minnesota (17-9,... The Golden Gophers are falling apart. Since a win over Northwestern on Jan. 26, they've lost five of six games, including at home to fellow bubble team Illinois. Tuesday's game at home against Michigan State is a borderline elimination game. All of Minnesota's recent losses are understandable, but the committee looks at recent performance and Minny looks like it's fading.
Best win: (N) North Carolina (RPI: 11)
Worst loss: Virginia (RPI: 146)
Mitigating factor: The committee may forget about Minnesota with all eyes on the protests in Wisconsin.
Verdict: In. The Gophers could fall out, but will probably sneak in thanks to the expanded tournament field.
Michigan State (... Michigan State has a couple of decent wins -- Washington and Wisconsin -- but is also just 1-7 against the RPI Top 25 and 9-10 against the Top 150.
Best win: Wisconsin (RPI: 18)
Worst loss: at Iowa (RPI: 157)
Mitigating factor: The committee is probably starting to get sick of that Chrysler Detroit ad, too.
Verdict: Out. There are just too many losses to overcome, though like BC, the Spartans could play their way in during its conference tournament.
Texas A&M (20-5,... The Aggies don't have any truly impressive wins and lost to Texas twice by 20, but they are 4-3 against the RPI Top 50. They have a really weak non-conference schedule, with only two solid wins (Temple in an early-season tournament and Washington) and a loss to fellow bubble team Boston College.
Best win: (N) Temple (RPI: 29)
Worst loss: Baylor (RPI: 75)
Mitigating factor: A&M has a non-conference strength of schedule of 209. 2-0-9! Team No. 210 is Quinnipiac. Yikes.
Verdict: In. Despite the low schedule strength, their RPI is decent and record gaudy. They'll get in because of their record, but the profile is weaker than the record indicates.
Kansas State (17... K-State was probably out until it routed newly minted No. 1 Kansas in Manhattan on Valentine's Day. Though it's 1-6 against the RPI top 50 and just 6-6 in the Big 12, that win was incredibly impressive and is fresh in the minds of committee members. The Wildcats could use a win over Nebraska on Feb. 23.
Best win: Kansas (RPI: 1)
Worst loss: Colorado (RPI: 91)
Mitigating factor: Jacob Pullen's beard.
Verdict: In. The late-season win over Kansas will sway the committee.
UCLA (19-8, RPI:... UCLA has been the only team to beat St. John's recently and has a nice neutral-site win over BYU in December. The Bruins are 10-2 in their last 12 games and look like they've played their way into the dance. Unfortunately for them, they have a tough schedule the rest of the way -- they will be underdogs in three of their last four. A win against Arizona at home on Feb. 26 would be nice.
Best win: BYU (RPI: 3)
Worst loss: Montana (RPI: 116)
Mitigating factor: UCLA players could be tired if they took part in this 26-hour dance marathon to benefit pediatric AIDS research, helpfully labeled as "bizarre news" by KABC-TV's website.
Verdict: Out. UCLA will look bad if it does go 1-4 or even 2-3 to end the regular season.
Washington (18-8... The Huskies have been statistical darlings all season, but have dropped some really bad games in the Pac-10, including three in a row to Washington State, Oregon State and Oregon. And even though they missed beating Arizona for a second time on Saturday, they need to win out (and should) before the conference tournament.
Best win: Arizona (RPI: 17)
Worst loss: at Oregon State (RPI: 224)
Mitigating factor: Look how cute little Husky puppies are.
Verdict: In. Thanks to the cuteness of puppies, of course, and a probable end-of-season surge.
Tennessee (16-11... The Volunteers have a couple quality wins but have even more questionable losses. Though they're only 6-6 in SEC play, they did go 10-5 against the No. 2 non-conference schedule in the country. Thankfully, the committee usually rewards teams for scheduling hard games.
Best win: (N) Pitt (RPI: 7)
Worst loss: at Charlotte (RPI: 210)
Mitigating factor: The Vols have actually been worse record-wise since coach Bruce Pearl's return from suspension. Maybe he can "accidentally" lock himself in the bathroom right before a game to inspire his team and make sure they get in.
Verdict: In. They're an up-and-down team, but the Volunteers should make it despite playing in a weak SEC.
Alabama (18-8, R... The Crimson Tide are one of the more interesting cases right now: They're 10-2 in the SEC West, but have an incredibly low RPI with just two decent wins (Kentucky, at Tennessee). They also went 8-6 against an incredibly weak non-conference schedule (282nd in the nation), with losses to Seton Hall, Providence and St. Peter's. They might need to pick up an upset win at Florida on March 1.
Best win: Kentucky (RPI: 15)
Worst loss: (N) Iowa (RPI: 157)
Mitigating factor: If you believe in cosmic retribution, Alabama won't get in after one of its fans poisoned some historic trees at Auburn.
Verdict: Out. That RPI is going to be too low for the Crimson Tide to make it.