Why Memphis is Dangerous

Forbes: America's Most Dangerous Cities

The Memphis metropolitan area logged 1,006 violent crimes per 100,000 residents last year, down from 1,146 in 2009. Chronic poverty likely plays a role – 19.1% of the residents of the were below the poverty line in 2010, making it the most impoverished large metro area in the country, according to Census Bureau data. But detailed record keeping also plays a part in why Memphis ranks so highly on our list: the city's police department adopted a data-driven approach to policing in 2006 called Blue Crush that relies on accurate incident tracking, for which it adopted the FBI’s meticulous crime reporting method known as the National Incident-Based Reporting System. As a result, it may be recording crimes that in other cities would go unreported to the FBI. Though the crime rate remains comparatively high, the Memphis Police Department says that serious crime has dropped more than 25% since it began the Blue Crush program in 2006.
(AP)

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America's Most D... To compile our list of America’s most dangerous cities, we used the FBI’s uniform crime report for 2010, which tallies crime data for each of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas, regions that usually consist of a large city and its suburbs or clusters of closely linked smaller cities, and metropolitan divisions, which are core areas within some of the larger MSAs. Because small fluctuations in crime numbers can produce outsize jumps in rates in smaller metropolitan areas, we looked at MSAs with a population of 200,000 or more. We used the FBI’s numbers for four categories of violent crimes: murder and non-negligent manslaughter; forcible rape; robbery; and aggravated assault.

It’s commonly expected that crime will rise as economic conditions worsen, but that hasn’t been the case in the U.S. – violent crime has fallen for the past four years. In 2010, murder was down 4%, rape fell 5%, robbery dropped 10%, and aggravated assault fell 4%, according to the FBI. “There’s a complex series of forces at work behind these rates,” says Tom Blomberg, dean of the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State Univeristy. “The state of the economy, demographics, the number of young males at any given time, the rate of imprisonment and the number of police all factor in.”

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5. Anchorage, Al... Anchorage, AK Metropolitan Statistical Area

Population: 313,181

(Walter Bibikow/Getty Images)

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Why Anchorage is... With 813 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, Anchorage has a somewhat higher crime rate than cities of comparable size, and a rate that is double the size of Alaska as a whole. It is the largest city in the state, but it also has the largest rate of forcible rape, which contributes to Anchorage’s high crime statistics. Property crime, while not factored into our survey, is also double Alaska’s rate. Methamphetamine use has been a perennial problem in Anchorage and elsewhere in the state, and although laws have been passed to limit access to the pharmaceuticals necessary to manufacture meth in the state, a steady supply of the drug is still flowing in from Mexico.

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4. Flint, Mich. Flint, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area

Population: 419,608

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Why Flint is Dan... With 827 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, Flint is an example of a city where a lousy local economy and a high unemployment rate have fueled crime. The area has lost thousands of auto manufacturing jobs, and as with Detroit, there’s been a drop in population. “People don’t have jobs, they don’t have money for food, so they become a lot more desperate, and these trends take a long time to reverse,” says Megan Wolfram, an intelligence analyst at the risk assessment firm iJET.
(AP)

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3. Springfield, ... Springfield, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area

Population: 206,601

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Why Springfield ... The capital city of Illinois, Springfield ranks third on our list because it had 855 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010. The city also confounds analysts who try to interpret its relatively high crime rate. The unemployment rate was lower than the national average at 7% as of July, so the economy wouldn’t seem to play a major role in crime. And although meth usage saw a small spike in the mid-2000s, a law passed a few years ago making the necessary pharmaceutical ingredients harder to buy seems to have cut down on abuse. There are also poorer neighborhoods – literally on the other side of the railroad tracks – that tend to have higher rates of poverty and the higher rates of crime that accompany that, which contributes to the city’s overall higher rate of crime. Another factor could be Springfield’s relatively young population – 66% of the city is under the age of 44 – and relatively younger populations are historically correlated with higher rates of crime.
(AP)

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2. Memphis, Tenn... Memphis TN-MS-AR Metropolitan Statistical Area

Population: 1,313,722

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Why Memphis is D... The Memphis metropolitan area logged 1,006 violent crimes per 100,000 residents last year, down from 1,146 in 2009. Chronic poverty likely plays a role – 19.1% of the residents of the were below the poverty line in 2010, making it the most impoverished large metro area in the country, according to Census Bureau data. But detailed record keeping also plays a part in why Memphis ranks so highly on our list: the city's police department adopted a data-driven approach to policing in 2006 called Blue Crush that relies on accurate incident tracking, for which it adopted the FBI’s meticulous crime reporting method known as the National Incident-Based Reporting System. As a result, it may be recording crimes that in other cities would go unreported to the FBI. Though the crime rate remains comparatively high, the Memphis Police Department says that serious crime has dropped more than 25% since it began the Blue Crush program in 2006.
(AP)

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1. Detroit, Mich... Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan District

Population: 1,895,974

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Why Detroit is D... Detroit consistently ranks as one of America’s most crime-ridden cities, and it comes in first on our list for 2010 with 1,111 violent crimes per 100,000 residents. A precipitous drop in population and employment rates due to suburbanization and the struggles of the Big Three automakers is a big factor, leaving the city strapped of funds to devote to basic services like education and public safety. “Year in, year out, and decade after decade, there’s been a very large population loss,” says Brian Stults, an assistant professor of criminology at Florida State University. “A large section of the population is gone, and they’re not the people doing crime to begin with.”
(AP)

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The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Comcast.
More From Forbes Click here to see the full list of America's most dangerous cities.