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24/7 Wall St.: Next Year's Best-Selling Cars

Click here to check out all of 2013's projected top sellers.

(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Next Year's Best... By Douglas A. McIntyre and Samuel Weigley

For decades, a relatively small number of cars and light trucks have dominated U.S. sales, whether these were built by American, Japanese, or European manufacturers. This trend goes all the way back to the Ford (NYSE: F) Model T. The dominance of the market by a few vehicles continued this year, and based on 24/7 Wall St. forecasts will continue in 2013.

Twelve million cars and light trucks were sold in the U.S. through the first 10 months of 2012. According to sales data provided by Edmunds.com, approximately 3.7 million of these were from sales of just 16 models. Most models have at least one characteristic in common. They tend to be inexpensive sedans that get high gas mileage. Every vehicle on the list has a base price of under $25,000. Fourteen have base models that have 4-cylinder engines, which tend to get better mileage than engines with 6-cylinder and 8-cylinder power engines.

Japanese manufacturers will continue to have the very best-selling cars. Of the seven best-selling cars for 2013, six are Japanese. The exception is Ford’s F-150 pickup, which has been a staple model line of the No. 2 U.S. car company since the 1940s. Japanese cars usually do well on consumer quality surveys, and these manufacturers, which include Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), and Nissan have been in the high-mileage end of the market since they became popular in the 1980s.

Based on sales data for the first 10 months of 2012 from Edmunds.com, 24/7 Wall St. has forecasted the 16 cars and light trucks that will sell best in 2013. Using the average monthly sales from January through October 2012, we projected full-year sales for these vehicles and calculated the annual percent change. We reviewed all models that would sell at least 200,000 by the end of this year. Using this forecasted annual change, we projected what each model’s sales would be next year. To be conservative, any models which were projected to increase more than average growth rate among the 16 best-selling cars between 2011 and 2012 were assigned the average growth rate.

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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10. Ford Escape Forecast 2013 sales: 273,846
YTD 2012 sales: 219,907
Base price: $22,470
Vehicle type: 4-door SUV, 4 cylinder

The Escape is the entry model of Ford’s SUV/crossover line. It weighs 3,500 pounds, carries up to five people and gets 33 mpg in highway driving. At the other end of the Ford SUV range is the Expedition, which can carry up to eight people and weigh as much as 6,000 pounds, is priced as high as $49,525, and gets an average of 14 mpg in city driving. Probably because of the differences in fuel economy, Ford sold 19,832 Escape models in October versus 2,943 Expeditions. The 2013 Ford Escape, which debuted in November 2011, is slightly longer and wider than previous versions, and has a stronger engine.

(AP Photo/Ford Motor Company)

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9. Chevy Silvera... Forecast 2013 sales: 282,627
YTD 2012 sales: 248,533
Base price: $22,595
Vehicle type: 2-door pickup, 6 cylinder

The Silverado is the mid-priced model among Chevy’s pickups, between the $17,474 Colorado and $35,980 Avalanche. Chevy offers other three versions of the Silverado, which are priced well above the 1500 — a hybrid, the 2500 HD, which has a 395-horsepower engine, and the six-wheel 3500 HD. As with many pickups, the 1500 comes in both two-wheel-drive and four-wheel-drive models. The 2014 Chevy Silverado will debut on December 13 and will be featured at the Detroit Auto Show in January, although no major details about the car have been released.

(AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

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8. Ford Fusion Forecast 2013 sales: 290,424
YTD 2012 sales: 206,855
Base price: $21,700
Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Fusion is Ford’s mid-sized sedan and comes in four models. The base Fusion gets 34 mpg in highway driving. For consumers more interested in an environmentally friendly car, the Fusion Hybrid gets 47 mpg on the highway. The highest-priced Fusion Titanium AWD costs $36,550 fully loaded, nearly twice as much as the base model. With its new 2013 Fusion, Ford became the first car company “to offer a sedan with gasoline, hybrid and plug-in powertrains that the automaker expects to result in ‘a triple crown of best-in-class gas, hybrid [and] plug-in efficiency,” according to Car Connection.

(AP Photo/Ford Motor Co.)

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7. Honda CR-V Forecast 2013 sales: 327,955
YTD 2012 sales: 233,586
Base price: $22,695
Vehicle type: 4-door crossover, 4 cylinder

The CR-V is Honda’s base crossover. The vehicle’s small 185-horsepower engine gets 31 mpg in highway driving. The CR-V comes in six versions. These include relatively standard options, like all-wheel drive. The high end EX-L has a satellite navigation system and a base price of $30,195. The 2012 model, which went on sale in June 2011, included cutting-edge technological features such as a standard Pandora radio interface and a text messaging feature that reads messages and allows people to choose one of six automated replies.

(AP Photo/Honda/DAPD)

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6. Toyota Coroll... Forecast 2013 sales: 333,933
YTD 2012 sales: 237,844
Base price: $16,230
Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Corolla is Toyota’s low-end sedan. Part of its appeal is its 34 mpg in highway driving. Toyota markets the Corolla against the Honda Civic Sedan and Hyundai Elantra. Among its advantages over its competition, according to Honda, are standard climate control and a CD player. Sales of the Corolla in the first 10 months of the year have already surpassed 2011’s total of 226,342. The Corolla’s most recent redesign was all the way back in 2007. Nevertheless, it was the best-selling compact car in 2011. Insiders have told Autoguide that the 2014 Toyota Corolla will be a “dramatic change.”

(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

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5. Honda Civic Forecast 2013 sales: 357,621
YTD 2012 sales: 254,716
Base price: $15,755
Vehicle type: 2-door coupe, 4 cylinder

The Civic is one of Honda’s lowest-priced models and comes in seven versions. The first, and least expensive, is a coupe. For slightly more money, $18,165, the Civic is available in a sedan version. As befitting the low-end model of any large manufacturer’s line, Honda offers a hybrid version, which gets 44 mpg in highway driving, as well as a natural gas version. Fully loaded with features, the natural gas version has a sticker price over $31,000. Sales of the Honda Civic have already grown from 221,235 in 2011 to 254,716 in just the first 10 months of 2012. The restyled Civic is expected to come out in 2013.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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4. Nissan Altima Forecast 2013 sales: 358,187
YTD 2012 sales: 258,663
Base price: $21,700
Vehicle type: 4-door, 4 cylinder

The 2013 Nissan Altima went on sale in June. It has different proportions and is more loaded with technology, although the changes aren’t massive. “It looks different, at least a bit sexier than the existing model, but its mission remains the same: attract as many mainstream car buyers as possible,” writes Greg Migliore of "Autoweek." The fuel economy for the four-cylinder Altima is approximately 27 mpg in the city and 38 mpg on the highway This goes down to 22 mpg and 30 mpg, respectively, for V6 models.

(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

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3. Honda Accord Forecast 2013 sales: 387,779
YTD 2012 sales: 276,196
Base price: $21,680
Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Accord comes in both a four-door base sedan and two-door coupe. The base engine for both is a 2.4 liter, four-cylinder engine. The sedan has an optional 3.5 liter V6. Honda’s full-size sedan competes against Toyota Camry and Chevrolet Malibu, both of which are on this list. Among the changes in the new Honda Accord, which went on sale in September, are shorter length, a continuously variable transmission, and a new engine family. Honda calls it “the most sculpted and dynamic Accord ever.”

(AP Photo/Honda)

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2. Ford F-150 Forecast 2013 sales: 455,305
YTD 2012 sales: 351,177
Base price: $23,670
Vehicle type: 2-door pickup, 6 cylinder

The F-150 is the base model of Ford’s large line of pickups. The first generation of the truck was introduced in 1948. The basic F-150 XL gets 23 mpg in highway driving. Of course, as engines get bigger, gas mileage drops. The FX2 model has a 5-liter V8, which gets only 21 mpg in highway driving. The SVT Raptor sports model has a 6.2-liter V8, which only gets 16 mpg in highway driving. The Limited model costs over $55,000 when fully loaded with all of its options. The restyled Ford F-150 costs $170 more than the previous year’s model.

(AP Photo/Matt York)

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1. Toyota Camry Forecast 2013 sales: 483,977
YTD 2012 sales: 344,713
Base price: $22,055
Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Camry sits in the middle of the Toyota sedan model line — above the Corolla and below the Avalon in price. As is true of all such high-selling models which sell in the hundreds of thousand of vehicles each year, the Camry comes in a number of versions. These include two hybrids, and what Toyota labels the XLE model, which comes with a 3.6-liter V6 that generates 268 horsepower. In August 2011, Toyota released its first redesign of the Camry in five years. However, many in the trade press felt that the company was merely playing it safe, given that the dimensions were not changed.

(AP Photo/Seth Perlman)

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More from 24/7 W... Click here to check out all of 2013's projected top sellers.

(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Comcast.